The other day at lunch, Richard Taylor asked me to post my Oscar predictions – or, atleast, who I want to win. I have not seen all the nominated movies and have no insight on who will win. Who wins the various Oscars is really an Inside the Movie Biz political game. Who do people like, who do they admire but don’t especially like, who did they vote for last year and don’t want to vote for them again – you get the idea.
I do obsessively read other people’s opinions on who will win, but, because I really don’t remember how accurate they were in the past, I don’t have much of an idea how good their predictions are. I sort of feel the LA Times is a good source because they seem to be the quasi-company paper; I like a website called the House Next Door because they seem to actually be thinking about the nominations; the New York Times because – well – its the New York Times and they have two different ways of predicting.
With those caveats, here are some predictions and what I liked the best of what I saw.
Visual Effects – Probably will win: Avatar; I hope will win: Avatar because that is what it was -and I mean this in the best possible way.
Cinematography – Probably will win: Inglorious Basterds; I hope will win; Inglorious Basterds – I just thought every shot in this movie was gorgeous.
Best Actress: Probably will win – Sandra Bullock; probably should win – one of the actresses from one of the movies I didn’t see; I hope will win – Sandra Bullock
Best Actor: Probably will win – Jeff Bridges -his Dudeness – in Crazy Heart which I didn’t see; who I hope will win – George Clooney if for no other reason than he is willing to take a risk but he started off so off-putting and ended up so vulnerable.
Best Supporting Actor: Probably will win – Christoph Waltz; I sure hope so, he was great.
Best Supporting Actress – Mo’Nique; I hope will win -Vera Farmiga who was charming in Up In The Air
Best Original Screenplay: Probably will win – Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds; I certainly hope so. The only problem here, as I see it, is that Tarantino writes great scenes rather than great movies. The scenes don’t alway fit together into a great movie – he sometimes gets around the problems by putting the scenes out of order as in Pulp Fiction – but, wow, are the scenes great.
Best director: Probably will win – Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker; I hope will win – Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds
Best Picture: Probably will win – The Hurt Locker; Who I hope will win – Avatar. It was a staggeringly original total experience.
Ok, so the big O night is approaching. Here are my thoughts based on what I’ve seen:
Best Picture: Avatar seems most likely to win and I like it for its, well, “bigness.” I really wish I’d seen Hurt Locker and the Blind Side. And everyone says I should wish I’d seen Precious. Maybe I will (and maybe that will end up being the Academy’s surprise favorite).
Director – I’ve only seen one of the movies nominated – Avatar. But I find myself rooting for Bigelow and Hurt Locker given what I’ve heard on Fresh Air.
Actor – Colin Firth in a single man was amazing. Here too though, I’ve only seen two of the movies nominated.
Actress – Carey Mulligan from An Education. Lets have Meryl step aside for a while.
as I look through the remaining categories I realize how very few of these films I’ve seen. So I think I’ll stop here and just wait and see what the folks at the Academy have to say.
Thanks for the comments, Richard. I would prefer Bigelow over Cameron, too. But I am still hoping for Quentin and Inglourious Basterds.
Good guesses for not seeing most of the films.
All of the documentaries look like must-sees (not a word), but I’m glad The Cove won as a friend and fellow hockey fan worked tirelessly on its promotion.