According to Bug Guide, the season for the California Oak Moth – Phryganidia californica, as if you care – is March to November. December through February should be too cold for them to be out. But it is about 70° outside and we haven’t had a night that dropped below freezing all winter. In the Sierras, there is almost no snow, less than 4% of normal near Tahoe, and the Department of Water Resources says that it is too early to say we are in a drought which I’m going to take as We are in a drought, almost for sure.

Climate projection and long-range weather predictions are very inexact sciences and, it seems, at some level, the decision has been made to underestimate the changes we are going through. I can, kind of, sort of, understand that because, if “Officials” overreact, the climate deniers will say, See, they are just trying to scare you (so they will get paid more or the Chinese will make money on unnecessary solar panels, or something other than “This is a real problem”). When we talk about a drought, we have the tendency to think rainfall and, especially, local rainfall but the lack of snow is the biggest problem. So far, this winter has just been too warm.