Category Archives: Politics

The trouble with Trump

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 We shouldn’t have ever gone into Iraq and we shouldn’t there now. It’s just a mess. We’ve spent hundreds of millions that could have been used on infrastructure and schools. Donald Trump on the Iraq war

I have written alot on defending people who are Trump supporters and, by inference, defending Trump. I don’t have too much of a problem with most of what Trump says he will do when if he is elected President, but I do have a big problem with his character and his judgement. Most of the positions he is criticized for are really no worse than, say, Jeb! and he is way better than Cruz – who now seems to be the Republican Establishment candidate of choice – on almost everything (I know, I know, those are pretty low bars). Yes, he is way, way, overboard on immigration but immigration is a real problem that nobody on the Republican side seems to be willing to address in any meaningful and feasible way and the alleged moderate, John Kasich, is just about as bad telling the Feds he doesn’t want any Syrians in his state.

The problem with Trump isn’t his positions or lack of detailed plans, it is his tolerance, even promotion, of violence as a legitimate response to something he doesn’t like. It is his intolerance of dissent. Years ago, I took a backpacking medicine course, and the most important thing I remember was “When something happens, spread calm.” Trump is the opposite, he promotes upset. He promotes thuggery and discord. At his rallies, when trouble arises, he escalates the situation. When a fifteen year girl gets pepper sprayed, or a guy being escorted out of a rally gets coldcocked, he celebrates it. When he doesn’t like what a person does, he belittles them. It is effective as a campaign tactic but I suspect it would be much less effective when trying to build alliances.

Trump is a businessman, how good, I don’t really know although I am pretty sure he is better than average. However, being successful at business does not translate into being successful at governing. Warren Harding and Herbert Hoover were both very successful in business but were unsuccessful as Presidents. Harry Truman, who is on everybody’s short list of successful Presidents, went into politics because he went bankrupt in business. As a businessman, when a deal goes sour or becomes too difficult, Trump could walk away or declare bankruptcy, that is not an option when running the country and certainly promoting violence isn’t.

Driving down the fault thinking about stupid

StupidRunning down the San Andreas Fault, driving past Tres Pinos, through the Bitterwater Valley, on Highway 25, passing small ranches, most of them very poor, I remembered a facebook conversation in which I was peripherally involved. This is Red California, politically closer to rural Oregon or Texas than nearby Silicon Valley or San Francisco, and many of the locals are probably voting for Trump and one of the facebook writers said that anybody who voted for Trump was stupid. The problem is that dismissing Trump voters as stupid is counterproductive, it doesn’t build understanding, it makes them the other, not even worth understanding. The writer is really saying, “I don’t understand so they must be stupid”. When Curious Cindie says, “I wonder why people would want to vote for Trump.”, and Liberal Larry answers “Because they are stupid.”, nobody learns anything. I expect that from Conservatives, but when Liberals do it, I am bothered because I want to maintain the fiction that all Liberals are curious creatures and open to new input, new ideas, I want to believe that being willing to explore other points of view is the essence of Liberalism.

But, and this really should be the lead, even if they are stupid, that is not why they are voting for Trump. These voters are voting for Trump because their American dream has vaporized. They have been betrayed by the Republicans – and by the Democrats which is why many of the Trump voters are ex-Democrats,  but that is another story – who have told them that the various Trade Agreements would bring prosperity, who have told them that rich people getting richer will make them more prosperous when the money trickles down, who have told them they will stop the immigration of cheap competitive labor, who have told them “Vote for us and we will solve your problems”. They have been told that everybody has the same chance to to become successful – if only the Democrats would get out of the way – but as I pass the small Bitterwater-Tully Elementary School, it is obvious that is not true. If anything, these Trump voters would be stupid if they still believed the Establishment line.

Rubbing salt in the wound, the Liberal Elite, and I am part of that elite, dismiss them as White Trash. Of course they are stupid, White Trash are stupid almost by definition, and that their poverty, unlike Black voters, is obviously their own fault. They are dismissed and marginalized, clinging to their guns and religion to quote Obama who I think said it in an understanding way. These are the people who the system has most failed. Blue collar labor and small businesses used to be a way into the middle class, now it is increasingly a dead-end. When Romney, with his air of superiority, says they should vote for Jeb! or Rubio, he is assuming that the Trump voters have goals that are in alliance with the Establishment goals and that those voters will change their vote once they realize that Trump is not promoting those goals. When even more voters are driven to Trump, the Establishment is shocked. “What is wrong with those people?” they ask, when the real question is “What is wrong with us, that we lost their vote that used to be so reliable.” San Andreas

Driving by a small, abandoned, oil drilling operation, I thought how emblematic it was of one of the reasons people are pissed at the government and their party Establishments. In 1916, the government passed a bill that allowed oil companies to write off dry holes and other costs, in an effort to protect small drillers that were taking big risks. That has now morphed into tax breaks for yuge oil companies, $700 million per year for Chevron, for example, while small companies have been virtually wiped out. This has happened because big oil companies make big political contributions: Chevron contributed $2,122,682 to Congressional campaigns in 2014 to continue with the Chevron example and spent $8,280,000 on lobbying. Trump says that he is self funding – which is not entirely accurate but still very powerful – and will not be influenced by political contributions and lobbying. That is very appealing to his supporters (it is very apealling to me as a Bernie supporter). 

Driving along, I realized I was in the same mental loop I have been in so many times before. It is inconceivable that Trump will get the nomination, he is crass, impulsive, and every party elite is against him and it is inconceivable that he won’t get it, every attack only makes him stronger, and he is a master at campaigning in this new, chaotic, internet-centric world. Hang on, it is going to be a bumpy ride.       

 

Driving to the Peterson and back, talking politics

Peterson (1 of 1)
The Bruce Meyer Family Gallery with a show of outstanding cars all painted the same color silver.

A week or so ago, Malcolm Pearson and I drove down to Los Angeles and back. We wanted to see the newly renovated Peterson Automotive Museum and driving to Los Angeles and back in the same day seemed like the best way to do it even though it makes for a long day, about 18 to 19 hours, with only about one third of it at the museum. That is a long time for two opinionated guys, often on different sides of the political spectrum, to spend together without arguing.  We talked about our kids, schools, the Warriors, Donald Trump and single payer healthcare (among other things) and we agreed on almost everything starting with our kids and grandkids being superior human beings.

As an aside, I have a theory on the superior human being thing, and I am serious here, I think our kids and grandkids really are superior human beings, not to their contemporaries, but to my generation. This is a generation whose mothers – not always but alot – didn’t smoke or drink when they were pregnant. and most of my generation were carried by mothers who did both. Living a clean life during pregnancy does make a difference, just like we were told by the government. End aside.

Malcolm is an emphatic Moderate and I am a card-carrying Lefty, so it is easy for our conversations to slip into arguments and it often has during one of our all day trips to some auto related event,  but that didn’t happen on this trip much to our mutual amusement and pleasure. Up until a couple of years ago, I always thought of Malcolm as a Conservative but a) I think he has moderated and b) he Self Identifies as a Moderate and c) I believe everybody has the inalienable right to Self Identify. I Self Identify as a Bernie Sanders Liberal because he is the only serious candidate with whom I have totally agreed. “Global Climate Change is the biggest threat to our security,” check; “Single Payer health Insurance”, check; “A living minimum wage,” check; check; check.

On this trip, we had Trump to agree on. We agreed that he is – to quote Malcolm’s daughter, Emma –  an “ugly, hairy chimp’s butt”, but we also agreed that Trump didn’t just come out of thin air, we agreed that there is a reason for Trump that most of the political establishment doesn’t want to understand. I get two or three emails a day pointing out something Trump said as proof of how stupid he is. My cue – or whatever it is called – on facebook is chock-a-block full of posts badmouthing Trump and, often, his followers. The political establishment says that the people voting for Trump are stupid and my corner of the netverse agrees. Despite that – or, maybe, because of it – both Malcolm and I agreed that the people voting for the establishment-authorized candidates, expecting to get a different result this time, are really the stupid ones. Trump is the political equivalent of a disruptive technology; if Trump were to get elected, things would change (maybe, probably, not for the better, but they would change and Trump’s supporters want change).

 

The Oligarchy Strikes Back

USA USA (1 of 1)What we are seeing this election season, with Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, is two political outsiders trying to take political power away from the Oligarchy. I want to say this as neutrally as possible because I know that Oligarchy is a loaded word, almost always in the negative. In this case, however, I don’t mean it to be. I’m using Oligarchy in the strict definition of a small group of people having control of a country, organization, or institution, and that is not always bad (or good).

The United States was founded as an Oligarchy with only property-owning white men being able to vote. That was not an oversight, it was done to limit the power of people. In terms of the form of our institutions, we have become more Democratic since then. First the property owning qualification was eliminated giving all white men the vote, then black men were also given the vote by the Fifteenth Amendment. Finally, 130 years after our founding, women were given the right to vote with the Nineteenth Amendment. Still, there has always been the subtext of limiting what seemed like the people’s power, with literacy tests, poll taxes, picture ID requirements, Citizen United, and in the Democratic Party, Superdelegates.

I don’t want to give the impression that I think the Oligarchy is monolithic, I don’t, however they do have common interests and Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is a threat to those interests and the Oligarchy is fighting back.

 

Watching the Democratic Debate: Fear vs. Anger

Debate (1 of 1)I am a pragmatist and I think that the best we can do in the current climate is to prevent backsliding and hope for some small incremental gains. from a post on facebook by a Hillary Clinton supporter

Watching Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders going at it during the debate in Milwaukee, I was taken by the huge difference in their underlying energetics, for lack of a better word (humm, maybe underlying emotion would be better). As an aside, I just recently realized that both Trump and Sanders say huge in the same way, yuuge, and they both say it alot, end aside. Of course, both Clinton and Sanders preach hope but the stronger message from Clinton is fear and from Sanders it is anger. From that base, their solutions are radically different: Clinton says, in effect, Don’t reach for the brass ring,  you’ll fall off the horse and Sanders, in effect, says You won’t get the brass ring if you don’t reach for it.

If you’re worldview is fear based, we should not make promises we can’t keep, because that will further, I think, alienate Americans, Hillary is the logical choice. If your worldview is anger based, what has happened is, I think, the American people have responded to a series of basic truths, and that is that we have today a campaign finance system which is corrupt, Bernie is for you. I understand that it is way more complicated than that, still I think each is supported by a different bedrock.

Through a fear anger lens, it is easier for me to understand why Sanders is polling better with young people and Hillary with old people. I’m an old person, I am now closer to 76 than 75, and – in many ways – I am an anomaly, but where I join my age group is in our concern with what we can’t do, from running up a sand dune to driving all night to go skiing. Young people don’t carry that concern, that sense of limitations, or at least not as much. What young people do carry more than most old people is anger. Yes, there are lots of angry old people – and Bernie is one of them – but that anger is usually attached to resignation and young people haven’t learned resignation yet. I’m getting nervous that this is sounding more negative than I feel and I want to put in a disclaimer, I don’t think of fear and anger as bad motivators.

In addition, Hillary presents herself as an accomplished technocrat who wants to be president, I’ve come forward with, for example, a plan to revitalize coal country, the coalfield communities that have been so hard hit by the changing economy….I think I’m the most qualified, experienced, and ready person to be the president and the commander in-chief. I am sort of fascinated that Hillary would use the same strategy that failed her against Obama. When I was a carpenter, there was an expression that I often heard, If it doesn’t fit, get a bigger hammer. and that seems to be Hillary’s modus operandi, she lost to Obama not because of her message but because she didn’t have enough money, the problems we have in Syria and Libya are not that we shouldn’t have gone there but that we haven’t gone in hard enough. When the primary numbers started to turn against her in the Obama campaign, Hillary just lowered her head and worked harder. Her main strength is her tenaciousness.

Bernie, on the other hand, presents himself as a candidate who thinks about the big picture, in Libya, for example, the United States, Secretary Clinton, as Secretary of State, working with some other countries, did get rid of a terrible dictator named Gadhafi. But what happened is a political vacuum developed. ISIS came in, and now occupies significant territory in Libya….Judgment matters as well. And she and I looked at the same evidence coming from the Bush administration regarding Iraq. I led the opposition against it. She voted for it. Bernie doesn’t get bogged down in details and when asked How are going to make this work? his answers are usually vague and often tangential, wandering back to Income Inequality. Counter-intuitively, that is Bernie’s strength: he has a theme to his campaign, he has a reason to be president, and it makes him feel authentic. Bernie gives off a hard to pin down vibe. I don’t think he started off expecting to win as much as to influence the election, and he doesn’t have as much to lose. Now he is in a place he didn’t expect to be and the question is, At 74, can he grow into this new role?