All posts by Steve Stern

Watching the Election Returns During a Time of Covid-19

Photo by Michele Stern

Several things can co-exist: 1. #Biden will likely win. 2. Democrats ran a horrendously bad campaign. 3. #Trump can now claim validation for his abuses. 4. The oligarchy is very pleased. 5. Working people remain screwed. 6. The system is irredeemably corrupt. Tweet by Peter Daou @peterdaou Survived Lebanese Civil War in the 80s. Remixer/keyboardist in the 90s. Political activist in the 2000s. Proud husband to @leeladaou. peterdaou.com

The “close divide” in USA only exists among white people. Every other racial demographic is clear in majority opposition to Trump but white ppl are 70% of US. Again, there’s this constant effort to frame the narrative in ways that avoid examination of white identity politics. Tweet by Bree Newsome Bass @BreeNewsomeartist – free black woman – “no weapon formed against you will prevail, and you will refute every tongue that accuses you.” Isaiah 54:17 North Carolina, USA whentheyseeusvote.com

Zapata County, Texas is the second most Hispanic county in America.
In 2012, Obama won it by 43 points.
In 2016, Hillary won it by 33 points.
In 2020, Biden lost it by 5 points.
What a disaster.
Tweet by the Gravel Institute @GravelInstitute We make educational videos spreading progressive ideas. Watch the latest video: https://youtube.com/c/thegravelinstitute?sub_confirmation=1…New York patreon.com/gravelinstitute

Covid19 has changed my election watching experience. Not the mechanics of watching the returns come in, we almost always watch them alone, at home, but, now, I feel isolated – sitting at home – and we watch this sorry show with dread. When we first turn on the television at about six, our time, it is nine on the East Coast and the polls have been closed for an hour. Trump is running ahead of my – at least – expectations and I worry that 2020 will be a replay of 2016 but, by midnight, it doesn’t seem to be panning out that way. At midnight, it seemed that Biden has a better chance than Trump, seemed being the operative word here.

Michele and I had just got back from Trump Territory where the enthusiasm for President Trump permeates the air. We spent two days and three nights in and around Tecopa, near the Amargosa River. We were near the Dumont Dunes Off-road Recreational area, and, on Monday, leaving Tecopa, we drove by lines of huge RVs towing specialized offroading vehicles proudly sporting huge Trump/Pense flags along with blue-line flags. But, when we got back home late Monday night, I started reading about a Blue Wave. “Hell, maybe Biden could even carry Texas and North Carolina,” they said. But, on Tuesday, when I turned on the TV, the bringer of reality, in this case,  I started feeling an overwhelming dread.  I should have known better.

Now it is Wednesday and the day is glorious, cool, and very clear, without a trace of smoke. Joe Biden has been declared the winner in Michigan and Wisconsin by the AP and I still feel on edge. I think Biden will win but I don’t think the country will very easily heal.

I feel that Biden won, for a lack of a better way to put it, by brute force rather than persuasion. For all his alleged accommodation with the former Republican elites, he didn’t get many Republicans – other than the Lincoln Brigade who seemed to have a personal beef with Trump – to change their minds. He doesn’t know that part of the electorate – I’m open to suggestions that he doesn’t any part of the electorate except his corporate donors but that is not germain here – and, I have to admit, I don’t know that part of the electorate either. But, it’s not my job so it is not inconsistent to be bothered that nobody in the Biden Campaign seems to have a handle on almost fifty percent of the people likely to vote.

No matter how it happens, I’m OK with a President Joe Biden. I do think he understands – as much as a fossil fuel supported politician can understand – that the Global Climate Change Crisis is real. Today, the Biden Campaign, in a very confident statement, Tweeted Today, the Trump Administration officially left the Paris Climate Agreement. And in exactly 77 days, a Biden Administration will rejoin it. I hope so.

 

 

  

To Tecopa and Back

But in the desert, in the pure clean atmosphere, in the silence – there you can find yourself. And unless you begin to know yourself, how can you even begin to search for God? Father Dioscuros

We went to the desert for a couple of days, just to get out of the house as much as anything. We were blessed with great weather, no smoke, and no Wifi. Now we are back – on Election Day – and we still have great weather and no smoke but the Wifi has brought our anxiety back.

Is a Phony Witch Hunt a Real Hunt?

Trump at the debate: “But just answer one question. Who built the cages? A big ask of that, who built the cages?” 

“When you don’t give a fuck about accuracy, it really opens up new avenues,” I said in an involuntary outburst of admiration for Trump’s disregard of reality.   

I was looking forward to the last debate, but with some trepidation. Former Vice-President Biden is leading in the polls and I, in the words of a neighbor, “just want to get this thing over.” I want President Trump to lose and that means Biden has to win and the longer this almost interminable election goes on the more chances for Biden to lose. In the last debate, Trump came out yelling, talking over both Biden and Chris Wallace, and the Debate Committee adjusted for that by having only the person with a live mic being the person to whom the question was asked. It worked well but, more importantly, President Trump had been told, by his election team – who even knew he had an election team? – to act more Presidential and less Alpha Bully.

I thought that would be hard for Donald Trump but I thought he would start off being a conventional politician and it would fade during the hour and a half allowing the Alpha Bully out. As a conventional politician, Donald Trump is very effective. He brought up that the child-separation policy didn’t start with him, he got it from Obama, for example. What Trump is not good at is nuance and I think that works to his advantage. The certainty, the black and whiteness of his positions, appeals to much of his base. The problem is that the truth is often nuanced and messy. Yeah, it’s true that President Trump didn’t start the Separating Kids From Their Parents Program, Bush started it and Obama continued it but the details are important. Both Bush and Obama used it only in special cases and President Trump took that abhorrent program and industrialized it. But even more telling, Bush and Obama tried to hide the program – out of shame, I think – while President Trump’s Administration started off bragging about it.

Joe Biden is the consummate politician, the consummate insider and he is running this campaign as a pitch for a return to normalcy. Sure, he is pitching lots of changes, including and especially in the area of Global Climate Change, he promises to make a huge investment in fighting Climate Change. But Biden’s real pitch is competency (and the end of constant drama). He kept returning to the Trump Administration’s inept handling of the Covide epidemic with different themes but the punchline was pretty much always a variation on “220,000 Americans dead”. Biden’s biggest weakness, in my opinion, is that he has been doing this for forty some-odd years and all his answers sound canned. But, when he runs out of canned answers and speaks from the heart, he can be very effective.

As an aside, I’ve watched various bits from Trump’s rallies and it always impresses me how much he interacts with the audience. He is their friend and they are having a good time together, not just with a group of down status white men and women but with a room full of rich Jews at an American Jewish Congress meeting. Part of that charm is his expressive mouth which works better in person than in a close-up on TV. End aside.

As the evening wore on, Trump’s Alpha Bully didn’t show up, Donald Trump the huckster did. As Trump got nervous, or tired, or both, started future faking, promising us that the vaccine would be coming before Election Day, that there was a better Health Care Program coming in just two weeks. As the debate went on, Donald Trump became increasingly strident and he slipped into full Capitan Quig and the Strawberries Mode, saying: “Joe got three and a half million dollars from Russia. And it came through Putin because he was very friendly with the former mayor of Moscow and it was the mayor of Moscow’s wife. He got three and a half million dollars. Your family got three and a half million dollars…nobody tougher than me on Russia…while he was selling pillows and sheets — I sold tank busters to Ukraine…There has been nobody tougher on Russia than Donald Trump…he tried to hurt Social Security years ago, years ago. Go back and look at the records…He tried to hurt Social Security…”

Trump’s rants bring up a bigger problem, however, the political system has no way to deal with blatant lies like “your family got three and a half million dollars”, the legal system is set up to deal with lies but not the political system. All Biden can do is deny it, but that is usually pretty weak sauce. “Biden denies his family got three and a half million dollars” almost reinforces the accusation. In a debate, it seems, the press is more interested in promoting discord than giving us a sense of the candidates. The week before last, I watched Biden’s Town Hall – and some of Trump’s – and that format is much better for actually getting information out. But that is academic now, the debates are over, and, in ten days, so will this election will be over too. Then the country can start on all the legal battles that are sure to come.

VOTE! ¡VOTAR! 投票 ! Bỏ Phiếu ABSTIMMUNG! VOTE!

 

 

A Baloon Ride Near Yangshuo

 

 

In the late Spring of 2009, Michele and I went to China. Neither Michele nor I have a clue about how to speak or read Chinese – or know much about China, for that matter, except for the Great Wall and the terra cotta soldiers of course – so, much of the time, we were traveling blind except for the internet. But the internet really is a game-changer. With the internet, we felt pretty safe flying into Hong Kong with no reservations except for a hotel reservation for the first night and tickets to fly out of Shanghai three weeks later. The three things we had on our agenda were the Shanghai Auto Show, the canyons in the Zhangjiajie area, and the karst formations around Guilin and the Li River.

The Shanghai Auto Show is probably self-explanatory. China is both the world’s largest automobile market and the world’s largest automobile producer and, well, a car show, any car show, is always interesting (if one is interested). Zhangjiajie was unknown to us but had been recommended in a travel book and was the first Unesco World Heritage site in China. The karst formations may not be famous by name, but we all know them because they have been so conspicuous in Chinese art.

A balloon ride has been at the top of Michele’s long list of things she would like to do. Specifically a Buddy Bombard Balloon ride through France’s wine country – which wine region, I’m not sure – so, when she found out that we could take a balloon ride in the Yangshuo area, that became our goal. Yangshuo is a tourist town surrounded by a farming area in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Because it has a large minority population like Inner Mongolia, Tibet, and the far west of China, in theory, the local government has more control than a normal Provincial-level administrative area. After watching the central state move into Hong Kong, I’m not sure autonomous is really an operative word in these cases. Either way, Yangshuo is a tourist town and the place in which we saw the most Western tourists, culminating with the balloon ride which seemed to be all western tourists. It was spectacular and even though it was almost ten years ago, I thought I would post some pictures.

But first, some geological background because the area is dominated by its geology; improbable mountains – hills? hummocks? – formed by a deteriorating limestone seabed. The limestone is formed because the sea is shallow and warm, and full of animals like oysters, clams, mussels, corals, and shrimp that use the calcium carbonate found in seawater to create their shells and bones. As these animals die, their shells and bones settle on the ocean floor where they, over millions of years, are compacted and turned into limestone. This limestone was raised above the sea level when the subcontinent of India floating on a small plate from an area near the southern part of the future Africa slammed into an area that was becoming Asia about 55 million to 35 million years ago. This is a tropical area and it has been raining on the limestone ever since, dissolving it into this fantastic landscape.

As an aside, when Michele first told me – deep in the Grand Canyon, as I recall – how limestone was made, it seemed so unlikely. “This huge area of limestone, thousands of feet thick, is made by the shells of tiny sea animals that precipitate to the seafloor when they die, really?” It turns out, “Yes, really, and limestone covers 12% of the earth’s land surface so it’s not even rare.” It is easier to understand by keeping three things in mind, the earth is very old – about four and a half billion years – for about three billion years, it was covered with more water than now – evidence of water first shows up in the geological record about three point eight billion years ago – and life showed up about three and a half billion years ago (in the shallow seas). That is a very long time for those little dead animals to litter the seafloor. End aside.

I want to add a disclaimer here, China was – and by all accounts, still is – astonishing smoggy. It reminded me of the LA Basin in the late 50s, early 60s, only worse in that the smog – and, is that even a word we use anymore? – is everywhere in the entire country. (My nose started running and my eyes burned from the time we landed in Hong Kong until we flew out of Shanghai, my theory is that my body had gone into a “get rid of this shit” mode.) With all the smog, trying to photograph a distant landscape from a balloon results in a washed-out image. Standing in the balloon basket with only the landscape in our vision, it is overwhelming, but in a nine by sixteen image on a small screen, it is very underwhelming. So, for your pleasure – I hope – and my ego, for sure, except for the one image below and the two images above, I have heavily worked over these in Adobe Lightroom, and I have been especially generous with my use of the Dehaze slider.

A Corrigendum

An erratum or corrigendum (comes from Latin: errata corrige) is a correction of a published text. As a general rule, publishers issue an erratum for a production error (i.e., an error introduced during the publishing process) and a corrigendum for an author’s error. Listed under Erratum in Wikipedia

According to the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, there are between 20,000 to 50,000 jobs in, and supported by, the state’s fracking industry. Sep 4, 2020, the first listing under fracking jobs in a Google search.

In the last post, while complaining about Vice-Presidental candidate Senator Kamala Harris saying three times that Biden wouldn’t ban fracking, I said, More importantly, it was unnecessary, nobody, who isn’t in the business really cares except people who are against fracking. While the sentence is pretty much true, the unnecessary part is my opinion. Pennsylvania is a key state in this election and there are somewhere between 20,000 to 50,000 well-paying – mostly union – jobs in the fracking biz in Pennsylvania, the Biden campaign obviously thinks that assuring those people they will not lose their jobs is necessary.