All posts by Steve Stern

Mostly non-thanksgiving thoughts on Thanksgiving weekend

Richardson Bay-0215Michele’s stepfather, Jim, was hosting Thanksgiving this year which really meant that Michele and her sister, Claudia, would do the shopping, cooking, table setting, and general preparation. Accordingly, Michele went to Napa Tuesday night to be there all day Wednesday, I followed on Thanksgiving morning. Michele suggested I go through Marin County – the slightly longer way – to save myself the agony of East Bay traffic. Michele’s belief  – firmly held belief – is that the area between about the Oakland Coliseum, in the south, and Appian Way, in the north, is a 24/7 traffic nightmare. It is a belief that is hard to argue with on the evidence, so I went through Marin. All the way up 280 and through San Francisco, the the highways and streets were almost empty.

Thanksgiving was a warm California day with only the slightest trace of a breeze – about the fourth warm day in a row without any wind – and, as I drove across the Golden Gate Bridge, the walkway was packed. I had thought I might stop at the viewpoint to look at the Bay and San Francisco, but the cars were waiting in line just to get into the parking lot. Just after the view point turnoff,  a flashing sign said Muir Woods parking full, take shuttle. I was swamped with love for California, where people walk across the bridge or go to Muir Woods for Thanksgiving. I didn’t think that this would be a Thanksgiving where people went around the table saying what they are Thankful for; it was not that kind of crowd and it was still too close to Phyllis’ s passing away. But if it did come up, I would say that I am Thankful I live in California.

Going down the Waldo Grade, Richardson Bay gleamed in the sunlight. There are maybe three or four vistas – that I see often – that take my breath away everytime I see them. The view down into Richardson Bay, coming down Waldo Grade on The 101 – would you prefer The Redwood Highway? – is one of them. Everytime! Traffic is speeding up, the lanes are narrow, the highway curves and the spectacular view distracts as it flashes by, blinking through buildings and soundwalls. I am so glad I live here.

Richardson Bay-0217

In San Rafael, I stopped at Whole Foods to pick up some turkey parts for Michele’s gravy and get sushi to go for me. There was a mysterious crowd around a tent outside the store and I wondered if this is some sort of charitable give away, But the crowd looked prosperous and Whole Foods is from Texas, where they don’t give much away. Later, driving across The Blackpoint Cutoff, I saw a billboard advertising Turkey Dinner – 99.95 Whole Foods.

Getting closer to Napa, I run into the first signs of the mono-culture that has become the Napa Valley. I found it strangely discomforting.

Napa vinyards in winter-0228

Napa vinyards in winter-0230

At Michele’s step-father’s home, Thanksgiving Dinner was great and so was the wine. The turkey, from The Fatted Calf , was a heritage, organic, free range, bird that seemed to resemble an actual animal and was the best turkey I have ever had. It made me realize that most turkey dinners are not that good with dry white meat and leathery skin. Some of the outstanding wine was from the Jacuzzi Winery which is the same Jacuzzi family that gave us the modern airplane propellor (and, I am told, but was not able to verify on Wikipedia, the counter-rotating torpedo propellor).

I got up early Friday morning to drive to San Francisco for the Auto Show which I was going to see with my son in law, Gabe, and above average grandson, August. I got up early because I was going to have to fight the dreaded East Bay traffic, but I was one of the few cars on the road all the way into San Francisco. I even had time to stop and look at one of my favorite bridges, The Carquinez Straits Bridge.

Carquinez Straits Bridge-

What I like about this graceful bridge is that its towers are concrete rather than steel and that there is no cross bracing, giving it an open, airy look. I have no idea how they did without the cross bracing – this is earthquake country, afterall – but they did and the bridge looks great, even with the old cantilever span next to it. As I got close to San Francisco, I began to see just how bad the air was because of no wind for the last couple of days. I don’t think that I have seen the Bay Area this smoggy in thirty years. It gave going to the Auto Show an ironic twist.

Carquinez Straits Bridge-0242

With no traffic, I got to the Auto Show early and was surprised that there was a long line.

San Francisco in smog-0245

The guy infront of me, about my age, told me that there was always a line on opening day. It was a tradition. As we stood there, a couple of his friends joined him with lots of tradition sounding chatter, Bob couldn’t make it. Where is Al? He’ll should be here in a couple of minutes. What I don’t think was traditional was their conversation on Global Warming and the rising oceans. They all agreed that where we were standing would be underwater in fifty years. Standing there on the dry sidewalk, eavesdropping, I could help but think they are right. And here we all are, waiting to look – with lust in most cases – at the very things that are polluting the atmosphere, not the only thing by far, but one of the things. Especially when you add in the whole supply chain: the energy to get the raw materials, the energy used to make the tools to make the tools to make the cars, the energy used to get them here and the energy we use to run them.

That is the problem, the lives we live – the lives we want to live – is trashing the earth. We want to blame Exxon or BP, and it is true that they are pushers, but – as Pogo used to say – We have met the enemy and it is us.  The life we live, even the most conscientious of us – and I am not one of them – uses too much energy to not trash the planet. We all know it, and very few of us are living our lives as if it were true. And no countries have National Policies based on those truths.

Two weeks ago, The United Nations announced that The Warsaw Climate Change Conference 2013 concluded successfully! (the exclamation point is theirs). In this case, successfully means Expressing serious concern that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal….Underlining the significant gap between the aggregate effect of Parties’ mitigation pledges in terms of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and aggregate emission pathways blah, blah, blah, blah…Urging all Parties to the Kyoto Protocol to ratify and implement the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol as a matter of urgency. In other words, agreeing that we really do have a problem and should do something about it, is considered a success.

I don’t want to give the impression that all this soured me on our first three generation visit to the San Francisco Auto Show, however. We had a super time looking at the newest offering of polluters.

SF Auto Show 2013-0278

As we were going down the escalator into the underground hall and I was trying to get my bearings, Auggie said There is a Corvette! and was off.  This is a dealer show, not a manufacturer’s show, so almost all the cars are already in showrooms and on the road but Gabe and I had not seen the new Corvette yet and we followed right along. By the time I got the ISO on my camera high enough to take a good picture in the low light, we had blown past the Corvette, past the Mustangs, where Auggie didn’t want to sit behind the wheel but was willing to sit in the passenger seat, to the Nissan GTR where Auggie didn’t get to sit at all. The GTR is a Japanese interpretation of a Supercar. Japanese in that it is exquisitely built, very reliable, hypercomplex, more transformer solid than graceful, and Supercar in that it will do zero to sixty in about 2.9 seconds with a top speed of about one hundred and ninety miles per hour.

GTR at San Francisco Auto Show-0250

By the time we got to Audi, Auggie ventured behind the wheel,

Audi at San Francisco Auto Show-0254

and by the time we got to Jaguar, Auggie had taken over the driving and Gabe was in the passenger seat. The future is pretty obvious.

Jaguar at San Francisco Auto Show-0265

We It didn’t take long to run through the entire show and get to the model car department where Auggie had some serious decisions to make.

Auggie at San Francisco Auto Show-0271

Shopping done, we broke for an early lunch, then Auggie and Gabe took off and I went back for some serious car watching.

 

Iran vs. World

Iran-4

At about 9 pm last Saturday night, Iran and a group of assorted World Powers reached a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program for six months while the two sides work out a permanent, more sweeping, agreement. By most accounts, it is a good deal all around. Iran has to stop enriching uranium beyond 5 percent and convert its stronger stockpile  back to oxide and, in turn, it will receive some financial relief, but most sanctions will remain.

At about 9:08, Ari Fleischer tweeted The Iran deal and our allies: You can’t spell abandonment without OBAMA. Of course he had no idea what the deal was, but, apparently, he wanted to be first in line to denounce it. On Monday, the price of gold dropped 20%, reflecting the opinion of the realist community on this now being a safer world. I should probably start any comments about the deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program by the United States, France, Britain, China, Russia and Germany with a disclaimer. I think that the crisis around Iran having the bomb is a manufactured crisis. Let me explain.

By manufactured crisis, I don’t mean to say that Iran having nuclear weapons is OK, I think that it is awful. But I don’t see it as more awful than anybody else having nuclear weapons. I am of the opinion that nobody should have them. That they are dangerous to mankind – actually to all of God’s creatures – and, if there were a rational, just, loving, God, nuclear weapons would not even exist, not even as a concept. Nevertheless, lots of countries have them and we seem to be OK with that.

Pakistan is reputed to have about 100 nuclear weapons and rather than trying to get rid of them, Congress has just authorized more than $1.6 billion in military and economic aid. Israel is hysterically screaming about the danger of Iran having weapons and possesses a nuclear arsenal of somewhere between 80 and 200 weapons. The United States has, by treaty, 7,700 nuclear weapons, most of them loaded and ready for delivery (euphemistically put). According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, we have a stockpile of an estimated 4,650 nuclear  warheads ready for delivery by more than 800 ballistic missiles and aircraft. That is probably enough killing power to kill everything on the planet down to the cockroach level.  Of course our weapons are OK because they can not be used unless they are authorized by the President – or, in the unlikely case of somebody in the chain of command running amok – and we are not a terrorist country (unless you want to count killing people by drone or the 150,000 to 240,000 people we killed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki with nuclear weapons).

All those nasty details aside, I think that Iran getting a nuclear bomb wouldn’t change anything very much. These weapons are really only last resort, defensive, weapons. What would Iran do with their nuclear weapons? Attack Israel? That is ridicules. Imagine Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons. The largest North Korean weapon, tested in 2009, is estimated at a destructive force of 2.35  kilotons and there is little reason to think early Iranian weapons would be any bigger. If they attacked, Israel would go ballistic (pun intended). Israel has buried ICBMs, submarines capable of launching nuclear cruise missiles, and nuclear equipped F-16’s capable of hitting Iran. If that isn’t enough, we could – and probably would – honor our treaties with Israel and retaliate. It would take only seventy five missiles – out of our arsenal of 450 silo-based Minuteman III ICBMs, each with a warhead of 330 kilotons – to destroy every city in Iran with a population over 100,000. Attacking Israel would be suicidal, we could essentially, turn Iran into glass.

Making a deal with Iran might be Obama’s most meaningful foreign policy act yet, even if it is the most surprising. It shouldn’t be, but it will be controversial. Controversial in that more Republican than just Ari Fleischer will be against it, if no other reason that it was negotiated by the Obama Administration. Senator John Cornyn of Texas has complained that Obama did it to distract us from Obamacare, being the first, I guess, to make wagging the dog about making peace rather than war. Controversial in that there is a large anti-Iran lobby (and a large pro-war, any war, lobby). The same people who wanted us to attack Iraq – and thought it would be easy and cheap – have been wanting us to attack Iran for a while. Of course, none of them want to go to war themselves or have their kids go to war but they are still anxious for war. And controversial in that Binyamin Netanyahu – and, strangely, the Saudis – have been cheerleader for war with Iraq War for years. They will be very disappointed and will let us know it and they have influence in Congress.

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.

The Senate and democracy (with a small “d”)

The Senate is not a democratic institution, nor was it set up to be. If I remember correctly from The Federalist Papers or Henry Steele Commager or High School Civics or something, the Senate was set-up to balance the passions of the people’s House.

The Founding Fathers were elites. They wanted a democracy, but their idea of democracy – while perhaps enlightened for a time of monarchs – would not be considered democracy today. In most States, only white property owners had the vote and even that select pool was considered too volatile not to have a check on their power. That check was the Senate which, originally represented the States. States as in separate Governments. When James Madison wrote about equal suffrage in the Senate, he was writing about equality between States, not people.

As representatives of the States, the Senators were presumed to be elites and, as such, they treated each other cordially (my guess is that it was an even bigger shock, in 1856, when Representative Preston Brooks – very un-cordially – beat Senator Charles Sumner with a cane). If a Senator had something to say, he was allowed to say it. That evolved into the filibuster and that distorted into the super-majority.

When James Madison wrote about equal suffrage in the Senate, he was writing against it. Not against it in practice but against it as being anything but an exceptional solution to the problem at hand (very similar to the Supreme Court’s 2000 decision to give the election to Bush when Scalia said Our consideration is limited to the present circumstances only). Madison and others agreed to  equality between states – as an exceptional compromise – in the Senate because they were afraid that states that didn’t join the Union might form other Unions, possibly with European powers. Just as the 3/5ths clause was put in the Constitution as a sop to slave states, the formation of the Senate with two Senators from each state no matter their size or population was a sop to the small states.

But, in 1800, the states were pretty close together in population compared to today. Rhode Island had a population of 69,122, more than 1/9th that of Pennsylvania with 602,545 souls. Today Rhode Island has a population of 1,052,567 people compared to California with a population 37,253,956. Both have two Senators and both States have equal political power in the Senate.

Because rural states which, by definition have smaller populations, are more conservative, the conservatives carry much more political power per capita. I haven’t done the numbers, but James Surowiecki of the New Yorker has and he says assuming that each senator represents all of the people in his or her state and that the currently open Senate seats (like Delaware, Illinois, and New York) will be filled by someone from the same party. And what you find, if you do the math, is that Republican senators actually represent about thirty-seven per cent of Americans.

Before the filibuster change, 45 Senators, representing 37% of the population could hold up any legislation they wanted. This is not Democracy. This is not Government of the people, by the people, for the people, even if we pretend it is. This is a Government setup by our Founding Fathers, a group of Elitist with, at least, some fear of the hoi polloi – the Great Unwashed as my mother called them – and they setup a government of elites that would be hard to change.

President John Kennedy was killed fifty years ago, today

Kennedy Brothers-63

 

Several months ago, Ed Cooney said that the shooting of President Kennedy changed the United States. That it was the day we lost our innocence. I told him that I thought he was wrong, but I was wrong. Everybody who was old enough to be there, remembers where they were when they first heard that the President was killed. That shocking moment – the moment they heard about that beautiful man being shot – is indelibly burned into our collective mind.

I was 23 on November 22, 1963 and stationed at Fort Bliss, Texas. Without a TV. What, looking back on it now, seems almost instantly, we were told we might be shipped to Cuba to provide air defense for the 101st Airborne which might be sent to Cuba because Castro might have been behind the killing. We spent the next couple of days packing up our equipment and then waiting to be shipped out. When we stood down, I – the whole unit, really – was disappointed and the funeral was over.

Watching Mad Men several years ago, I was struck by how much the country was glued to their televisions during the couple of weeks after the killing and how I missed most of it. How I missed little John John saluting his father’s Caisson as it passed by, I missed the widow, dressed so fashionably, in black. I missed the grandeur of a state funeral.

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I also missed the bonding driven by that common experience. I missed out on the transformation of President Kennedy to Martyr Kennedy and have been a little mystified ever since by the adoration.

It wasn’t the day that I lost my innocence, but I am ready to believe it was a day that transformed The United States.