The free people of independent Ukraine! And that says it all. Just four words, but how much is behind them today. the opening lines of s speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky marking Independence Day.

August 24th is Ukraine Independence Day. Exactly six months before the 2022 celebration, on February 24th, Russia attacked Ukraine, so this August 24th also marked the six-month anniversary of that attack. Probably not by coincidence. On this anniversary, it is hard to not comingle the two anniversaries. Actually, that Ukraine still exists is astonishing. All the Intelligence experts predicted, way back on February 24th, that Ukraine would be swallowed up by Russia in a matter of days. Not only did Putin’s attack fail to obliterate Ukraine and weaken NATO as he promised, but both NATO and Ukraine have become stronger.

To mark both occasions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave a speech that I think is terrific. It is short and I highly recommend it. In the speech, he points out: “During these six months, we changed history, changed the world and changed ourselves…And the whole world learned who Ukrainians are. What Ukraine is. No one will say about it anymore: it is somewhere over there, near Russia…We started to respect ourselves.”

Andrei Codrescu, a Romanian poet I only know of through hearing him on NPR, said that Eastern Europeans have a morbid sense of humor because they are powerless, caught between two great forces, The West and Russia. That certainly seems true in the case of Ukraine. The photograph of the commemorative stamp set, above, is an example: the original stamp commemorated Roman Hrybov, the Ukrainian soldier on Snake Island who said “Russian warship, go fuck yourself”, the new set shows Hrybov without the ship (because the Ukrainians sunk it with two homemade R-360 Neptune anti-ship missiles).

Every August 24th, Ukraine has a Russianesque Military Parade, this year, the parade was a stationary “parade” made up of wrecked and captured Russian equipment which Zelensky pointed out in his speech “The occupier believed that in a few days he would be on parade in our capital’s downtown. Today, you can see this “parade” on Khreshchatyk. The proof that enemy equipment can appear in the center of Kyiv only in such form. Burnt, wrecked, and destroyed.”

While Ukraine is growing stronger, it is taking a terrible beating in this war as shown in this photo essay in the New York Times. But, I think Ukraine will win for lots of reasons. More than anything else, war hardens opinion, war eliminates nuance, war builds resolve. I remember seeing a recording of Zelensky visiting the Donbas front just after he had been elected. Nine soldiers had just been killed in the ongoing low-grade conflict and newly elected President Zelensky was clearly rattled, saying that the Donbas was not worth any more lives. Now he is a war president and willing to have that many people killed every day to take back the Donbas. But War President Zelensky also wants Crimea back and he seems to be willing to pay for it in additional human life.

I think that Ukraine will win because they have to. If Russia losses they go home, if Ukraine losses they cease to exist. That is a big motivator.

Ukraine’s army is way better than Russia’s. They have younger, more innovative leaders: Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyiare, is 49, and the Russian Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, is 67. That is a big difference in a war which is a 24-hour-a-day seven days week job. Not only are Ukraine’s soldiers more motivated and better led, but they are also better trained and they are becoming better equipped.

Being better equipped also ties back to the first point. I keep reading, usually by the same pundits that predicted Ukraine wouldn’t last ten days, that, by winter, the West will grow weary of supporting Ukraine. I think those pundits have it backward. Those countries now sending equipment to the Ukrainian Army have a vested interest in Ukraine winning, a vested interest that increases as the war goes on. Biden doesn’t want to lose to the Russians on a national and personal basis and the longer this war goes on with the Ukrainians showing they can fight Russia, the more important to the West is a Ukraine win. Weapons that were deemed too provocative in March are now being sent to Ukraine on an almost routine basis. I expect that, within a year, we will have equipped Ukraine with the Patriot Air Defense System or maybe, even the more advanced MEADS system.

When this war is over, and someday it will be over, Ukraine will be closer to Europe not only militarily but also it will be closer to Europe culturally and financially. It is already happening. As destructive as this war has been and will be, I think Ukraine will win and be better off after it.