A Couple Of Random Thoughts On Ukraine

04:00 #Donetsk (occupied): “The oil depot in Kirovskyi district is on fire. `Have the orcs smoked again in an undesignated area?” via @hochu_dodomu A Tweet by English Luhansk @loogunda Occasional reporting and translations about Ukraine. (formerly “English Lugansk”)

Our Congressional Delegation traveled to Kyiv and met with @ZelenskyyUa to send an unmistakable and resounding message to the entire world: America stands firmly with Ukraine. A Tweet by Nancy Pelosi @SpeakerPelosi Speaker of the House, focused on strengthening America’s middle class and creating jobs; mother, grandmother, dark chocolate connoisseur.

The West is a series of institutions and values, Russia is European but not Western. Japan is Western but not European. Western means rule of law, democracy, private property, open markets, respect for the individual, diversity, pluralism of opinion…historian Steve Kotkin quoted in the New Yorker.

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed, citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has. ― Margaret Mead

Ukraine is a poor country, much poorer than it looks on TV. U.S. News – the same U. S. News that ranks colleges and universities and that I pick up at newsstands to see if my alma mater’s ranking has changed – ranks Ukraine #71 out of the top 78 countries, with a GDP per capita of $13,350 (for comparison, the GDP per capita of the US is $65,280 and Luxumbourg is highest at $124,590).

These numbers, however, although commonly used are deceptive, thrown off by the number of very rich in each country; if one billionaire gets richer but no one else does, the GDP per capita still goes up. A better number is probably the median income which is $4,434 in Ukraine, the USA is at $19,306, and Luxumbourg is at $26,321. Ukraine’s median income is about a third of the median income of South Korea or half that of Poland and twice that of nearby Georgia. Counterintuitively, I believe that is one of the reasons they are doing so well. These are not people who are used to having somebody else fix their problems.

In this case, however, somebody else is, at least, helping; NATO, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, and now, Isreal. Ukraine’s military budget is $5.94 B but, so far, NATO, alone, has given and pledged $6.4B worth of equipment to them and it is arriving fast.

Over the years, as we bollixed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, I’ve been very critical of the US Military and even more critical of our Intelligence Community which seemed incapable of predicting world-changing events like the fall of the USSR. But, what our Military Establishment is great at is logistics and our Intelligence Community has been training for picking Soviet or Russian targets – mostly by satellite – for eighty-two years. Getting equipment to people who are willing to use it and giving them the location of high-value targets is exactly what is needed right now. We have been moving equipment into Ukraine at astounding speed, about 60% of the large artillery pieces Biden released were sent in 72 hours and they are killing generals at an unprecedented rate.

As an aside, I think a lot of this high regard for and expertise in logistics is because of the great Ulysses S. Grant. Much to his dismay, Grant was assigned to the Quartermaster Corps after he graduated from West Point but the training he got served him well during the Civil War. For example, the North built 22,000 miles of railroad track during the Civil War compared to only 9,5000 miles for the South. Moving soldiers and equipment fast was in Grant’s DNA, during the Mexican-American War War, Grant even dragged a canon up into a bell tower to give it better range. The Army he built during the Civil War was based on better equipment and faster movement and it still is in the United States Army’s DNA. End aside.

While Ukraine is a European country, it is not what I think of as European because, when I think of Europe, I’m really thinking of Western Europe. I’m really thinking of France or Germany, Spain or Italy. The Ukrainian character is closer to Russian than French, just like their language. Obviously, now, they want to change that and a large part of the population is willing to die for it. As the Ukrainians say, “Glory to Ukraine!”

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